Conservative Political Commentary

...usually with an attempt at historical and economic context

Monday, October 24, 2016

Donald Trump States His Case in Strong Gettysburg Speech; Are the Polls Reliable?

By Eddie Howell

Donald Trump's Gettysburg speech on October 22 outlined his plans for the first 100 days of his administration, should he be elected president. The speech is a sort of summary of his policy plans and goals, which most Americans other than diehard or low-information liberals would probably find agreeable. I highly recommend listening to the speech.


The Clinton side, complete with lawless dirty tricks as exposed by James O'Keefe and the ProjectVeritas Action Fund, has pulled out numerous schemes to sabotage Trump's campaign and rig votes, all of which should result in legal troubles for the DNC, Clinton campaign, and their “consulting” organizations.

The mainstream media, which in politics is now worse than worthless, cannot print or air a story on the campaign without a marked slant in favor of Clinton. The corporate media is in a cozy relationship with Clinton and is in full sympathy with her socialist and globalist elite backers and sympathizers, such as George Soros, the EU, the UN, etc. Trump is throwing a real scare into these people, and they are desperate to defeat him. Thus, many of the polls are slanted toward sampling more Democrats and producing the desired results. But like the Brexit polls, many could be proven completely wrong. The idea for liberal pollsters is to suggest that the election is already decided, and Trump supporters need not bother voting, which is simply not true. Some respected polls are showing Trump in a very competitive position. The Investor's Business Daily poll as of 10/24/2016 shows a virtual tie between Trump and Clinton. This poll was the most accurate in the last presidential election.

Stony Brook University Political Science Professor Helmut Norpoth, who has correctly predicted the popular vote winner in five consecutive presidential elections, says his model indicates that Trump has an 87 per cent chance of winning on November 8. His model differs from some others in taking into account the results of primary elections. See primarymodel.com for more details. In this video, the professor discusses his prediction with Tucker Carlson:


Polls and predictions can be wrong. A lot depends on voter turnout, and that relates to the intensity of voter enthusiasm for their candidates. Are they willing to face unfavorable conditions (weather, etc.) to go to the trouble of voting? Also, many have already voted or will be voting before November 8. And new surprises may still happen. It's going to be interesting.

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